Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
