A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
